Will Cuba Accept Maduro? Yes. But, There’s At Least One Problem. Trust.
/Published 7 September 2019
Will Cuba Accept Maduro? Yes. But, There’s At Least One Problem. Trust.
H.E. Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, members of his immediate family, aides and members of the government, board an aircraft at Simon Bolivar International Airport (SMVI) or Generalissimo Francisco de Miranda Air Base (SVFM) near the capital, Caracas.
The aircraft may be the property of the government of Venezuela, the government of the Republic of Cuba, of a third country, or chartered by an international organization, such as the United Nations (UN).
Scenario One- The F-16’s
The aircraft departs Venezuela for the 1,342-mile, three-and-a-half-hour flight to Jose Marti International Airport (HAV) or military airports Managua Airport (MUMG) or San Antonio de los Banos Air Base (MUSA).
Soon after departing Venezuela airspace, The Honorable Donald Trump, President of the United States; The Honorable Michael Pompeo, United States Secretary of State; The Honorable John Bolton, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs; and The Honorable Elliott Abrams, Special Representative for Venezuela at the United States Department of State; along with members of the United States Congress, publish statements using the Twitter platform.
Collectively, the statements congratulate the citizens of Venezuela for obtaining their freedom, confirm that the United States will be supporting the citizens of Venezuela, confirm that commercial, economic and political sanctions will soon be removed, and note that the government of the Republic of Cuba “has now done what it should have done years ago. Maduro should still face justice for his crimes.”
Other statements, although more positive in tone, are issued by individual governments and by the one hundred ninety-three-member UN, twenty-eight member European Union (EU) and thirty-five-member Organization of American States (OAS).
Nearing the end of the journey, while over international waters, four (4) General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft from the United States Air Force intercept the aircraft transporting Mr. Maduro and require the pilots to land either in the United States or a third country. If in a third country, Mr. Maduro is then flown to the United States, likely the state of Florida, where he is arrested, arraigned, charged and then remanded to custody at the Federal Courthouse in Miami, Florida. His mug shot is included in a Tweet published by President Trump.
Presumably, President Maduro would not depart Venezuela using an aircraft belonging to the government of Venezuela precisely to seek to prevent the aforementioned scenario- President of the National Assembly of Venezuela and Interim President Juan Guaido would likely not strenuously object to a redirection of the aircraft and would rescind any diplomatic immunity for those aboard the aircraft. If, however, the aircraft belongs to the government of the Republic of Cuba or another country (China, Russia or Turkey for example) or chartered by an international organization which has diplomatic status, would the United States feel encumbered by potential criticism? As of today, doubtful.
Scenario Two- Extradition
The aircraft departs Venezuela for the 1,342-mile, three-and-a-half-hour flight to commercial airport Jose Marti International Airport (HAV) or military airports Managua Airport (MUMG) or San Antonio de los Banos Air Base (MUSA).
Soon after departing Venezuela airspace, The Honorable Donald Trump, President of the United States; The Honorable Michael Pompeo, United States Secretary of State; The Honorable John Bolton, Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs; and The Honorable Elliott Abrams, Special Representative for Venezuela at the United States Department of State; along with members of the United States Congress, publish statements using the Twitter platform.
Collectively, the statements congratulate the citizens of Venezuela for obtaining their freedom, confirm that the United States will be supporting the citizens of Venezuela, confirm that commercial, economic and political sanctions will soon be removed, and note that the government of the Republic of Cuba “has now done what it should have done years ago. The United States appreciates that President Diaz-Canel has helped to end the suffering of the citizens of Venezuela; now he should focus on ending the suffering in Cuba.”
Other statements, although more positive in tone, are issued by individual governments and by the one hundred ninety-three-member United Nations (UN), twenty-eight member European Union (EU) and thirty-five-member Organization of American States (OAS).
Upon landing, Mr. Maduro and his party are transferred to several secure protocol residences located in the Miramar District of Havana.
Hours later, there is a new series of statements from officials of the United States government and by members of the United States Congress: The government of the Republic of Cuba must “immediately extradite Maduro and others to face justice or Cuba will face even more severe consequences for harboring an international criminal and drug trafficker.”
Verbal whiplash for the [Miguel] Diaz-Canel Administration in Havana: At 10:00 am, President Maduro departed Venezuela. At 1:30 pm, he arrived in the Republic of Cuba. At 1:45 pm, the United States government confirmed the Republic of Cuba’s constructive role in resolving the problem for Venezuela. At 3:00 pm, the United States is again condemning and threatening the Republic of Cuba.
The Questions
For the government of the Republic of Cuba, determining its role in resolving the commercial, economic and political issues in Venezuela includes determining whether the United States wants to resolve a problem or maintain an issue. It’s about trust.
The United States proposal to the government of the Republic of Cuba: Accept President Maduro, his immediate family, aides and members of the government. In return, the United States will not seek the extradition of Mr. Maduro or any of the other members of the traveling party and will not criticize the Republic of Cuba for accepting Mr. Maduro or any of the other members of the traveling party. The United States will continue to search for assets connected to Mr. Maduro, his family, aides, and officials located outside of Venezuela and return those assets to Venezuela.
Even if the United States were to put the proposal in writing, and it was signed by President Trump, Secretary Pompeo, Ambassador Bolton and Ambassador Abrams, could and should the Diaz-Canel Administration and other governments have confidence that the agreement would binding… and for how long would be until the next statement issued using Twitter that the agreement was no longer valid?
Additional Analysis
The Unresolved Commercial, Economic And Political Issues In Venezuela Remain A Bilateral And Multilateral Contagion
