Brazil's Likely New Role... And How It May Impact Cuba

Due to the expansive indebtedness of the government of the Republic of Cuba to public sector entities and private sector entities in Brazil, H.E. Jair Bolsonaro, President of the Federative Republic of Brazil, has a platform from which to say to H.E. Miguel Diaz-Canel, President of the Republic of Cuba, “You can’t pay your debts because you are refusing to make changes; that lack of practical governance does not make you one to support, rather it makes you one to denounce and pressure.”   

The key to a successful approach by Brazil is whether it will focus upon the refusal by the government of the Republic of Cuba to change rather than an inability by the government of the Republic of Cuba to change. 

The government of the Republic of Cuba could spay much of the impact of regulatory and policy changes by the Trump Administration to Obama Administration regulatory and policy changes by engagement with Obama Administration regulatory and policy changes that the government of the Republic of Cuba refused to authorize during the final two years of the Obama Administration. 

President Bolsonaro believes, correctly, that criticism of the Republic of Cuba has a shallow downside domestically but has a robust upside internationally as the Republic of Cuba’s adhesion to Venezuela, support for Nicaragua, symbiotic relationship with North Korea, and commercial, military and political dependency upon China and Russia will inoculate Brazil from criticism while promoting Brazil as a critical component of resolving, managing and containing conflict. 

The Trump Administration will continue its embrace of President Bolsonaro and is expected to increase the expansiveness of that embrace particularly with respect seeking Brazil’s support for efforts for “regime-change” in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua.  “Regime-change” officially defined as change in the behavior of those in the regime rather than a change in those in the regime.

Brazil will likely accept a prominent role at the Organization of American States (OAS) to serve as a catalyst for a more activist reach for the OAS. 

Unsurprising will be the Trump Administration inviting President Bolsonaro, and H.E. Ivan Duque Marquez, President of the Republic of Colombia, H.E. Mauricio Macri, President of the Argentine Republic, H.E. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, President of the United Mexican States, H.E. Martin Vizcarra, President of the Republic of Peru, and H.E. Sebastian Pinera, President of the Republic of Chile to The White House for a Summit to discuss regional solutions to regional issues.