On Friday, 31 July 2020, Mr. Timothy Zuniga-Brown, Coordinator- Office of Cuban Affairs within the Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs of the United States Department of State in Washington DC replaced Dr. Mara Tekach as Charge d’Affaires at the United States Embassy in Havana, Republic of Cuba. Dr. Tekach will replace Mr. Zuniga-Brown as Coordinator- Office of Cuban Affairs.

While unspoken and denied, unsurprisingly would be a goal for the Trump Administration to entice the Republic of Cuba to expel Mr. Zuniga-Brown prior to United States elections on 3 November 2020. The plan: “pick a fight and make it look like they started it.”

There are individuals within the Trump Administration, in the United States Congress, and at the Trump-Pence Presidential Campaign Committee who advocate exactly that timeline because they believe an expulsion will be of value- with voters.

The expulsion of Mr. Zuniga-Brown would permit, in rapid sequence, the Trump Administration to expel H.E. Jose Cabañas, who had been the Chief of the Cuban Interests Section in Washington since 2012 and presented his credentials on 17 September 2015 to President Barack Obama as the Republic of Cuba’s first ambassador to the United States in more than 50 years. His appointment came two months after a restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

With an expulsion, the embassies in Washington and Havana could be downgraded, again, to Interests Sections. Thus, furthering disruption of the bilateral relationship, further delegitimizing the government of the Republic of Cuba, and hoping to finally extinguish interest by United States companies.

For the [Miguel] Diaz-Canel Administration in Havana, the questions are how much disruption, interference, provocative behavior will it tolerate from a United States diplomat?

Given the impact upon the Republic of Cuba by decisions of the Trump Administration, the economic implosion of Venezuela impacting substantial commercial support to the Republic of Cuba, added to the impact by COVID-19 upon a primary revenue source (tourism) for the country, and a chronic shortage of foreign exchange from which to be current with its bilateral and multilateral debt accords, President Diaz-Canel would need exercise caution as to how to respond. His most expected strategy will be to complain, but do nothing until the results are known of the elections on 3 November 2020.

For Mr. Zuniga-Brown, the next ninety-three days provide a relatively clear flight pathway to do and say what he wants to do and say. However, he may want to be packed the morning of 3 November 2020, just in case…

If President Trump is defeated, Mr. Zuniga-Brown is likely to remain through the inauguration on 20 January 2021 after which instructions received from Foggy Bottom may be altered. NOTE: A [Joseph] Biden Administration is likely to seek to install a United States Ambassador in Havana and Ambassador Cabanas would likely be replaced for a new face to begin the Biden Administration.

If President Trump wins, and Mr. Zuniga-Brown has veered past acceptable verbal and written markers established by President Diaz-Canel, then there would likely be an expulsion.

The unknowns also include whether the Diaz-Canel Administration may adopt (or co-opt) the Trump Administration plan to “pick a fight and make it look like they started it” because it’s a good optic for domestic politics in the Republic of Cuba.

As The Honorable Thomas “Tip” O’Neill (D- Massachusetts), 47th Speaker (1977-1987) of the United States House of Representatives, once said “All politics is local.”

Previous Posts:

Cuba's Ambassador to Washington Is A Hostage- If He Departs, He Won't Be Replaced (25 February 2018)

Could Statement By U.S. Department of State Be Precursor To Expulsion Of Cuba's Ambassador To U.S.? (23 November 2019)