Biden-Harris Administration Considerations. Counterintuitive? Might Now Be Time For A U.S. Ambasador To Cuba? Three U.S. Senators Believe So.

Two questions to which the Biden-Harris Administration (2021- ) seeks answers as it determines how to respond to the protests in the Republic of Cuba commencing on Sunday, 11 July 2021:

1) Are the events in the Republic of Cuba a crisis for the United States? and 2) Is the Republic of Cuba near, at or beyond an inflection point such that a response from the United States Government is necessary?

Thus far, the answer to the first question is no.

The answer to the second question generates greater complexity because the commercial, economic, and political infrastructure in the Republic of Cuba continues to change- not necessarily because of desire, but a result of the lessening of external support to the Republic of Cuba prioritized to maintaining existing yet grotesquely inefficient commercial, economic, and political infrastructure. The Republic of Cuba continues to change, glacier-like in most aspects, and not at the velocity preferred by the 11.3 million citizens residing atop the 800-mile archipelago and acutely by individuals of Cuban descent residing in the United States and their supporters in the United States Congress.

Important too to remind that the mistakes of the Obama-Biden Administration (2009-2017) and [Raul] Castro Administration (2008-2019) to not mandate expansive opportunities for United States companies to re-engage widely and deeply throughout the commercial and economic sectors in the Republic of Cuba provided for the Trump-Pence Administration (2017-2021) a landscape from which to easily and swiftly remove what re-engagement existed. Had the widespread presence of United States companies in the Republic of Cuba been responsible for thousands of employment opportunities within hundreds of operations- and for the last seven years influence the decisions of the Republic of Cuba, where the country is today may not have been where the country is today.

The Republic of Cuba since 1959 has never been defined by a moment, but rather as a series of moments. The bilateral relationship between the Republic of Cuba and the United States has also never been defined by a moment, but rather as a series of moments- each former building atop the latter.

The Republican Party wants the Biden-Harris Administration to be aggressive knowing that President Biden is disinclined to do so- with the result a Biden-Harris Administration portrayed as “soft” on Communism and Socialism- a political death star given United States election dynamics for 2021, 2022, and 2024.

The Democratic Party wants the Biden-Harris Administration to return to the Obama-Biden Administration policies impacting the Republic of Cuba. President Biden was never going to embrace again the quid-absent-quo strategy announced on 17 December 2014 that would soon be surgically undone by the Trump-Pence Administration.

The goal of the Biden-Harris Administration is to de-escalate by not reinforcing the narrative that there exists a crisis in the Republic of Cuba which necessitates a response by the United States. Absent a crisis, the Biden-Harris Administration can delay a response. The Diaz-Canel Administration (2019- ) also wants, domestically, to portray absence of a crisis- but simultaneously wants what is happening in the Republic of Cuba to be viewed in the United States as a crisis- so as to stimulate the Biden-Harris Administration to modify its policies and regulations relating to the Republic of Cuba. Yes, it’s complicated.

The events in Haiti are a crisis for Haiti. But, are the events in Haiti a crisis for the United States? Thus far, no.

The events in the Republic of Cuba are a crisis for the Republic of Cuba. But, are the events in the Republic of Cuba a crisis for the United States? Thus far, no.

As head-of-state, President Joe Biden needs to project empathy. The Democratic Party needs to show strength. As head-of-state, President Miguel Diaz-Canel needs to project empathy. The Communist Party needs to show strength.

The demonstrations in the Republic of Cuba do create pressure upon the Biden-Harris Administration to complete its Cuba Policy Review and then implement the recommendations of its Cuba Policy Review. Some members of the United States Congress will ask "what is being done to support those who protest?"

The government of Cuba may benefit from the demonstrations because it is seeking from the Biden Administration any change to existing policies and regulations- and believes that regardless of the intention of those policies and regulations, the government of Cuba can create value from them rather than endure pressures from them. May seem counterintuitive....

As for whether the demonstrations serve as a trigger for greater unrest and sustainable unrest and then catalyst for fundamental and prompt commercial, economic, and political changes within Cuba. Doubtful.

Three members of the United States Senate, who requested anonymity, are supportive of the appointment of a United States Ambassador to the Republic of Cuba believing the protests commencing on Sunday, 11 July 2021, provide a unique opportunity- provided the individual is fluent in the Spanish language, formidable, media savvy (a former journalist for example), has a successful private sector career, can negotiate, not adverse to confrontation, and, as one United States Senator shared, “appreciates the value of being an “eternal pest.’” One of the United States Senators offered that the idea had been shared with officials at The White House. The nominee could be one of the 5,913 individuals (or company representative) with certified claims for expropriated property against the Republic of Cuba. The nominee could be an individual of Cuban descent, although the Republic of Cuba may refuse to accept his/her credentials- which might provide the Biden-Harris Administration a victory.

As quo for the quid, the Republic of Cuba would expectantly request that H.E. Lianys Torres Rivera as Charge d’Affaires ad Interim For Bilateral Missions, who arrived to the United States during the Trump Administration in January 2021, be credentialed as Ambassador Extraordinary And Plenipotentiary.

Lastly, will be watching to see if the demonstrations are repeated on Sunday, 18 July 2021, with the same intensity and same geographical distribution as the demonstrations on Sunday, 11 July 2021. If the demonstrations are repeated, what will be the response from the Diaz-Canel Administration?