Analyses By Two Cuba Analysts Are Wrong: Biden Administration Will Not Abandon Florida & Title III Not Yet In Play
/Miami Herald
Miami, Florida
29 December 2020
Will Biden restore ties with Cuba? Debate swirls over next steps as Florida loss muddies plans
Article Excerpts [bold italics added]:
Some analysts reject concerns about a political fallout from a new thaw in Cuba relations. “Biden doesn’t owe anything to Cuban Americans,” said Richard Feinberg, a University of California professor and former diplomat. “Florida is now a red state.”
But there are smaller moves the administration could take. The new administration could try “trust-building” steps such as suspending Title III’s right to sue companies accused of trafficking in property seized by the Fidel Castro government and engaging the Cuban government in a new round of negotiations of pending U.S. claims, said Ric Herrero, the executive director of the Cuban Study Group, an organization that has promoted U.S. engagement with the island. While reversing Trump’s executive orders would be fairly easy, he said making deeper progress on normalization will take time. “So much depends on the Cubans,” Herrero said. “If they line up all the economic reforms they have announced, that opens up a lot of opportunities.”
UPDATE: On 9 January 2021, the Democratic Party of the State of Florida elected as chairman The Honorable Manny Diaz, a former mayor of Miami, Florida. Mr. Diaz is of Cuban descent. LINK To Article
Commentary:
Mr. Feinberg
Mr. Feinberg shares that Florida “is now a red-state,” suggesting the [Joseph] Biden Administration should not believe it encumbered by appeasing its 2020 population of 21.48 million residents (14.5 million registered voters) where the Republican Party has 5,219,015 and the Democratic Party has 5,335,965; and 3,790,478 have no party affiliation. Is Florida “a red-state?”
In the 2020 Presidential Election, Florida voted 51.2% Republican to 47.9% Democratic; in 2016, 49.0% Republican to 47.8% Democratic; in 2012, 50.0% Democratic to 49.1% Republican; and in 2008, 51.0% Democratic to 48.2% Republican. These statistics would likely not have a political consultant avoiding a paid position an election contest in Florida.
Do the following changes from the 116th United States Congress to the 117th United States Congress reinforce Mr. Feinberg’s opinion that Florida is enduringly lost to the Democratic Party?
For 116th Congress:
Senate- 2 R
House- 13 R and 14 D
For 117th Congress:
Senate- 2 R
House- 15 R and 12 D
20 July 2020: “Successful politics is about addition and multiplication, not subtraction and division. If we're gonna win as a party, we're gonna have to appeal to more people and not shrink the base.” Governor Larry Hogan (R- Maryland). A valid statement too for the Democratic Party.
Does Mr. Feinberg suggest the Biden Administration not be concerned about the number of Democrats in the United States House of Representatives where the Democratic Party will in the 117th United States Congress have perhaps a majority of single digits?
The 2020 Census is expected to deliver to Florida two (2) additional seats in the United States House of Representatives.
The state legislature in Florida is controlled by Republican Party. In 2021, the Florida Senate (24- R and 16- D) and the Florida House of Representatives (78- R and 42- D) will expectantly seek to craft favorably the two new districts for the United States House of Representatives. There will likely too be court challenges.
Lastly, there are the unknowns which can influence future elections (2022 and 2024) in Florida: H.E. Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, is removed from office. H.E. Daniel Ortega, President of Nicaragua, is removed from office. The government of the Republic of Cuba decides to robustly engage with the Biden Administration; the certified claims are resolved.
Neither the Biden Administration nor the Democratic Party headquarters in Washington DC will abandon Florida.
Mr. Herrero
There are no pressing reasons, there is no pressure upon President-elect Biden to suspend again Title III of the Libertad Act.
There are thirty-two lawsuits filed: some dismissed, others in courts of appeals. There is no meaningful Florida-based constituency advocating for another suspension; there is no meaningful national political constituency advocating for another suspension; there is no meaningful national business constituency advocating for another suspension.
Regardless of which political party in the 117th United States Congress controls the United States Senate, the margin will be 50-50, 51-49 or 52-48. Close enough for the Biden Administration to be required to negotiate with the minority, regardless of which political party is in the minority as there are Democrats and Republicans who will oppose another suspension of Title III and the decision to do so could impact support for other Republic of Cuba-related and non-Republic of Cuba-related issues important to the Biden Administration.
President-elect Biden, along with his incoming foreign policy staff, is known for process, for negotiation. There has been no final court judgement (award) against any defendant during the 607 days since the implementation of Title III. Only when there are final court rulings, final judgements, would the Biden Administration probably again look to suspend Title III. At present, there is nothing the Biden Administration can point to linking the implementation of Title III with preventing a specific domestic policy or foreign policy goal. There is no you-did-this-and-so-that-did-not-happen moment. There might be in 2021, but there is not now.
As for “trust building,” the implementation of Title III has far more meaning to the European Union (EU) than to the Republic of Cuba. Only two (2) Republic of Cuba government-controlled companies have been sued, while eight (8) companies in the EU are defendants. The EU will be expected to seek from the Biden Administration another suspension of Title III. The Biden Administration will be expected to respond with a question- what will the EU do to assist the United States with a resolution of the 5,913 certified claims against the Republic of Cuba? Quid-pro-quo.
The government of the Republic of Cuba had during the Obama Administration (2009-2017) numerous opportunities to negotiate- or at least initiate formal, bilateral negotiations for a settlement of the certified claims (and only the certified claims) and chose on multiple occasions not to do so. There also existed, perhaps less so, opportunities during the Trump Administration (2017-2021). A grave miscalculation by the Obama Administration for not making conditional progress on resolving the certified claims with progress on other bilateral commercial, economic, and political issues. There has been a substantial cost to United States companies for the failure of leadership by the Obama Administration and then [Raul] Castro Administration with respect to resolving the certified claims. Beginning on 20 January 2021, the Biden Administration can correct that missed opportunity.
